Zwift Games Finale: What the Hell Just Happened?!?

Blog #15

As I sit down to write this on Monday, my head is still spinning.

I think I’m pretty good at calling a spade a spade on this blog. If a race is boring, I’m not afraid to say it. For instance, heading into the final stage of the Zwift Games last week, I declared that the women’s Overall race was over. Kate McCarthy’s lead was just too much for anyone to overcome. There were a couple of long-shot scenarios where Maria Holdcroft or Gabriela Guerra could eek out an upset, but they all involved shutting McCarthy out of intermediate points. Of course, just a few kilometers into the finale McCarthy scored ten points at the first QOM, and that was that. Pretty anti-climactic, notwithstanding Guerra’s exciting stage win at the finish.¹

But the men? Completely different story. I’m not prone to hyperbole, but I think this was the most exciting pro virtual race of all time.

For the past two days, I’ve been thinking about how to recap the chaos. I haven’t come up with any good ideas. So here’s what I’m going to do: I’m going to sit down, rewatch the race, and live blog my reactions, which hopefully will be a bit more perceptive with the benefit of hindsight and the ability to pause and think through the various scenarios as they play out.

If you haven’t watched the race yet, here is the video. Also, please note that results are still preliminary at the time this blog was published. Let’s go!

Kilometer 0 - The Contenders

Heading into the finale,² there were seven men who still had a realistic shot at winning the Overall championship. They were, in order of the standings heading in:

1. Jasper Paridaens (262 points)

2. Neal Fryett (259 points)

3. Josh Harris (257 points)

4. Ruben Dhondt (256 points)

5. Lionel Vujasin (255 points)

6. Jason Osborne (249 points)

7. Lennert Teugels (246 points)

Within these seven, there were basically three groups of riders, each of which had different paths to victory:

• Paridaens and Fryett: Neither is a great climber, and the five riders breathing down their neck in the standings would dust them in the ten-ish minute climb at the end of the stage. So their path to victory was scoring points at the two intermediate locations, then hanging on for dear life on the final climb and hoping it’s enough.

• Harris, Dhondt, and Vujasin: In a weird middle ground. It’s possible that finish line points would be enough if Paridaens and Fryett were blanked at the intermediate KOMs, but absent that they either (i) needed to score some intermediate points, or (ii) hope Paridaens and Fryett fell back far enough on the final climb to overtake them.

• Osborne and Teugels: Good climbers who could legitimately win the stage. But because they wouldn’t be able to claw back enough points on Harris, Dhont, and Vujasin at the finish line alone, they needed to score points at the intermediate KOMs, hope Paridaens and Fryett scored nothing or bonk on the final climb, and finish at the top at the finish line. Toughest path to victory of all these riders.

First Intermediate Points - Jarvis KOM (39.1 km remaining)

The first intermediate point location came less than 6 km in, and right from the start it was f*$%ing chaos. Dudes were raining attacks left and right. With less than 1 km to the line, a group of Thomas Thrall, Johan Norén, Matheu Decock, and James Barnes sat almost 10 seconds in front of the peloton.

Notably, only one of these riders had a teammate in the running for the Overall. That was Decock for ABUS – Synergy. And I have to say, I’m not really sure what he was doing. Paridaens and Teugels also ride for ABUS – Synergy, and as we just discussed, the path to victory for either of those riders would require scoring at least some intermediate points. But by pulling the four breakaway riders to the line for the last few hundred meters, Decock was actively undermining that possibility. To be generous, maybe ABUS – Synergy thought that if none of the Overall contenders scored intermediate points, Paridaens could maintain his lead on the final climb? If so, that was… an optimistic strategy.

Anyway, Thrall, Norén and Decock crossed the KOM line in that order. No intermediate points to the contenders.

Race Status: Harris, Dhondt, and Vujasin are feeling pretty good right now. Everyone else who really needed intermediate points less so.

Sampling the Epic (28.3 km remaining)

The punch up the beginning of the Epic KOM Reverse was arguably the first selection point. But it didn’t really amount to much. As the peloton began the descent into the Mayan Jungle, 40/45 riders remained. At least that was my count - it feels a little like playing Roll Call on Mario Party here:

Race Status: Nothing has changed. On balance though, the more riders that are dropped at these selection points, the better for Paridaens and Fryett (assuming they aren’t one of those riders), since it raises the floor on the minimum amount of points they can score at the finish.

Second Intermediate Points - Mayan Mountainside (19.8 km remaining)

Here’s where the race really kicked off. With 800 meters to the line, Andrew Buffington attacked. My initial response watching live was… why? Buffington didn’t have a teammate competing for the Overall. He was way out of it personally. On the live broadcast, his attack *literally* prompted Anna to ask: “Do you know him, Nathan?”

But it seems like the answer was pretty simple: if you remember, in Stage 1 the Americans - eschewing loyalties to their trade teams - put together a lead-out train to deliver Hayden Pucker to the line in first place. After Fyett came away empty at the first KOM, this one was make or break. If he didn’t score points here, his dreams of the Overall would be in serious jeopardy. Fryett didn’t have any other trade teammates in the race, and it seems like the other Americans stepped up.

So Buffington attacked to start the lead-out. Fellow Americans Joe Chudyk and Rob Devlin tried to follow, but (and it’s hard to tell on the broadcast) they initially got swallowed up by the group of riders swelling past Buffington. The American train sort of falls apart - but Fryett still finds himself on a multi-national train sitting behind the Canadian Thrall, the Frenchman Thomas Gobert, and the Polish rider Michał Kamiński.

At this point, I’m thinking that: (i) the Americans are working together for Fryett, and (ii) even though the train didn’t work as well as it did in Stage 1, Fryett is still in a good position.

But then Chudyk comes back!

My first reaction: this is great for Fryett. He’s out alone catching wind, and a Chudyk lead out would give him a chance to catch his breath and do the sort of double kick sprint he used to win the Climb Showdown. Chudyk pushes 12 w/kg. Grabs Fryett’s wheel. Gobert, Thrall, and Kamiński drop. Fryett settles, then surges past Chudyk as the riders turn a corner and the line approaches. Nathan basically calls it for Fryett. And then…

Chudyk keeps sprinting? I’m pretty confused. Nathan even says that Chudyk is trying to “steal” points away from Fryett. As Fryett and Chudyk cross the line 1-2, Fryett is pushing almost 14 w/kg. But Chudyk is over 11, clearly still working like maniac.

When I watched this the first time, my initial instinct was to agree with Nathan: Chudyk wasn’t working for Fryett. There wasn’t some big old American kumbaya going on, or if there was, Chudyk wasn’t part of it. Rewatching though, I’m really not sure. If you were riding for Fryett, the most important thing is getting him those ten points. But it’s also really helpful if none of your competitors for the Overall take the five or three points behind you. And by continuing his sprint and taking second, Chudyk was not only leading out Fryett, he was protecting his back as well.

I have no idea what the right answer is here - remember, this is just a fan blog. I don’t know or talk to any of the riders. But either way this is wildly entertaining stuff. Either the Americans banded together but Chudyk wasn’t part of it (a juicy, made for reality TV kind of story) or Chudyk is Mathieu van der Poel in 2024 Milan-San Remo, doing yeoman’s work to deliver Jasper Philipsen/Fryett the win. The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that it’s the latter. But I really have no idea.

Race Status: And then there were five. Realistically, Osborne and Teugels can’t win without bonus points, and there are no more left. Here are the updated standings after the second KOM:

1. Neal Fryett (269 points)

2. Jasper Paridaens (262 points)

3. Josh Harris (257 points)

4. Ruben Dhondt (256 points)

5. Lionel Vujasin (255 points)

6. Jason Osborne (249 points)

7. Lennert Teugels (246 points)

Heading into The Grade and then the final climb, everyone basically needs Fryett to bonk.

Itza Climb (17.4 km remaining)

Right off the back of KOM, the peloton goes into the Itza Climb. The pace is frantic - the other four contenders realize that this might be their best chance to drop Fryett. He’s fatigued after the sprint for intermediate points, and for someone like Vujasin, who needs to finish 14 places above Fryett to have a chance at the Overall, it’s now or never.

Entering the climb, there are roughly 36 riders left in the front pack. The thinning is slight, but Itza and The Grade right after it are going to be critical selection points before the final climb. Sadly though, there really isn’t any action from the favorites or their teammates on Itza.

Race Status: Still only five in contention. One more barrier down for Fryett.

The Grade (14.2 km remaining)

And here is where things crack. A little more than midway through the climb, Fryett is fully dropped. Harris, Vujasin, Dhondt, and - incredibly - Paridaens have all made a (stretched) front group of ten riders. At this point, things are starting to look pretty grim for Fryett.

Osborne though was causing trouble. He was sitting at the front of the group, calmly climbing at about 7.5 w/kg. Just an absurd pace. Harris is dropped with 12.6 km remaining. On the final segment, Paridaens uses his feather to try to maintain contact, but heartbreakingly is also dropped with the top of the climb in sight. Five riders enter the descent together, including Vujasin and Dhondt, with Paridaens just three seconds behind.

Race Status: Oh Jasperrrrr. This was so tough to see. He was so close at the summit! But as every Zwifter knows, if you aren’t in contact then, you are in trouble. As the group of five worked together and hard-paced the descent, the gap to Paridaens quickly grew.

Harris is also eliminated at this point. With Dhondt, Vujasin, and three other riders 15 seconds up the road, it would take a miracle for him to maintain his slim margin over those two while also leapfrogging Fryett and Paridaens.

So here is the race status as we descend and get ready for the final climb.

1. Neal Fryett (269 points)

2. Jasper Paridaens (262 points)

3. Josh Harris (257 points)

4. Ruben Dhondt (256 points)

5. Lionel Vujasin (255 points)

The Descent (10 km remaining)

Here are the groups as we descend with 10 km left:

1. Vujasin and Dhondt Group

2. Paridaens Group (+15 seconds)

3. Fryett Group (+27 seconds)

It’s hard to tell from the broadcast how many riders are in each group, but things are looking bleak for Fryett right now. He’s got a lot of cushion from the ten intermediate points, but the virtual Overall standings are showing Vujasin, Dhondt, and Paridaens flicking into the lead by a few points as the three groups descend.

Around this time Nathan mentions something in passing: U.S. national champion Hayden Pucker is in Fryett’s group. “Hayden Pucker is a really good person to have with him” is the exact quote. And… yeah. That turned out to be prescient.

We don’t really see a ton of it, but with 7 km remaining the broadcast flashes back to the Fryett group. Pucker and his stars and stripes jersey are on the front just motoring down the descent. “The freight train that is Hayden Pucker is working for his fellow American,” Nathan observes.

With 6.5 km left, the Fryett group catches the Paridaens group. As they enter the final climb together, there’s no ambiguity in this story. Hayden Pucker:

Race status: Pucker bringing Fryett back on the descent turns the tide from Dhondt/Vujasin being the favorites entering the final climb to Fryett. Paridaens needs some luck, but if he can keep climbing like he did on The Grade it’s possible.

To get even more granular, here are the two main groups heading into the final climb:

1. Vujasin and Dhondt Group: 5 total riders

2. Fryett and Paridaens Group: 13 total riders

Here’s each rider’s cleanest path to victory,³ assuming these groups stay together and no one catches them:

1. Fryett: Finish no worse than 12th (7th of his group of 13);

2. Paridaens: Win his group (6th overall), while Fryett finishes at least 13th (8th in his group);

3. Dhondt: Win his group (1st overall), while Paridaens doesn’t win his group and Fryett finishes at least 14th (9th in his group);

4. Vujasin: Win his group (1st overall), while Paridaens finishes at least 8th (3rd in his group) and Fryett finishes at least 15th (10th in his group).

The Final Climb, Part 1 (4.9 km remaining)

500 meters into the final climb, Jason Osborne drops the other four riders in the front group. That’s bad news for Dhondt and Vujasin, whose best possible finish is now second. They’ll need even more help from Fryett and Paridaens to win.

Then the chaos starts. With 2.9 km, the broadcast zooms back to Fryett, who is struggling to hold on to his group. We see him, yet again, clinging to Hayden Pucker’s wheel while Paridaens is up ahead looking strong. Nathan and Anna are losing their minds, in the best way possible. No one watching in real time has any idea what the math says (all the scenarios I’m providing you here were calculated while watching the second time and pausing repeatedly - it’s impossible to do live), and at one point the virtual standings have all four riders deadlocked at the same number of points.

The camera flashes to Paridaens. He’s got a towel wrapped around his shoulder, and he’s swaying side to side with his tongue hanging out like a crazed Michael Jordan on a bike. He’s valiantly holding his position, and at this point it’s hard not to be rooting for him.

2.0 km to go. Vujasin is now in second, with Dhondt three seconds back. Kamiński, Vujasin’s teammate, is seven seconds back on Dhondt in fourth. Paridaens is in a grupetto ahead of Fryett, and things look good for him until they don’t. With 1.3 km remaining, the camera shows him getting dropped from the pack and into 14th place on a steep 10% gradient.

Race Status: Heartbreaking, but now there are three:

1. Neal Fryett (269 points)

2. Jasper Paridaens (262 points)

3. Ruben Dhondt (256 points)

4. Lionel Vujasin (255 points)

The Final Climb, Part 2 (The Last Kilometer)

As we reach the last kilometer, Vujasin and Dhondt are back together in second and third. Fryett is hovering around 15th. Here’s the scenario. Either:

1. Fryett wins if he finishes at least 14th (or if Vujasin takes 2nd, 15th);

OR

1. Dhondt wins if he finishes 2nd and Fryett finishes at least 15th; or

2. Vujasin wins if he finishes 2nd and Fryett finishes at least 16th.

The crazy thing here - and I want to emphasize this - is how important the battle for second is. Neither Dhondt nor Vujasin can win at this point unless they beat the other. Kamiński is both (i) nine seconds back with less than 900 meters to go, and (ii) more importantly, Vujasin’s teammate, and as such has no real incentive to chase. So it feels like it’s mano a mano to the line between these two, who will then need to wait and hope that another rider or two passes Fryett.

This by itself is exciting enough. But then two things happen in quick succession that get us to a bonkers ending:

• First, Osborne crosses the line for the Epic win. Okay, this part isn’t bonkers, the dude is the reigning world champion and had dropped the front group at the start of the climb.

• But right as that happens, the camera pans back to Vujasin and Dhondt. And Kamiński is there! He surges past, and Vujasin opens up to late. Somehow, Kamiński finishes second. Dhondt is third, and a shocked Vujasin fourth.

Race Status: Vujasin is taken down by his own teammate. On the broadcast, Nathan and Anna speculate that it might’ve been a botched lead out. Maybe that’s right, and the strategy was solid but executed poorly. But it reallyyyyy didn’t seem like it. If I had to guess, Coalition just wasn’t riding as a team, and the prize money at the finish line was every man for himself.

But whatever the reason, Vujasin is now eliminated from the Overall. Here’s the status quo as the broadcast searches for Fryett:

• Fryett wins if he finishes at least 15th. 16th or worse, it’s Dhondt.

The Finale

When Kamiński, Dhondt, and Vujasin cross the line, Fryett is nowhere to be seen on the screen. The virtual standings have him one point up on Dhondt (which translates to 15th exactly), but we have no idea if he’s in a group or otherwise likely to be overtaken. Remember: Dhondt would have the tiebreaker here.

Finally, the camera finds Fryett. We see him climbing up the last steep slope and passing one rider (I think Perren, but it’s not clear). The virtual standings tick up another point in his favor, and he’s now two ahead of Dhondt.

We get an image of Fryett IRL. He’s on his deck furiously pedaling away. He gets out of the saddle as the line approaches, still (somehow) pushing over 12 w/kg. On the broadcast, they finally shift from showing the top ten in the stage to 11-20. Fryett is in 14th, ten seconds behind Chudyk⁴, six seconds in front of Perren, and (critically, since dropping to 16th would give Dhondt the win), eight seconds in front of the rider in that position.

Fittingly, it’s Paridaens in 16th. Fryett crosses the line in 14th. He collapses over his handlebars. Nathan gives a shout out to “the American handshake” that delivered him the victory. We don’t see it, but I’m sure somewhere, off screen, Pucker, Buffington, Chudyk (I think), and the rest of the Americans celebrate as well.

1. The best evidence that the Overall competition was over before the finale started was the fact that Guerra - who basically would’ve needed those ten points at the first QOM to challenge McCarthy - saved her feather PowerUp for the end of the stage. She’d clearly punted on the Overall and was focused on the stage victory. Which, sincere kudos to her. That was the right move, and beating McCarthy at anything at this point is a massive accomplishment.

2. This post assumes familiarity with the format of the final stage and the scoring system for the Overall championship. If you want more background, please see my preview of the final stage. For more background on Zwift Games more generally, please see my preview of the whole darn thing.

3. The tiebreaker, I believe (though Zwift has never told us this explicitly) is best result at the finish line in the Epic.

4. How crazy would it have been if that position mattered, Chudyk was riding for Fryett, and he just stopped before the finish line and let Fryett take it.