A VERY Quick World Championship Preview

Blog #43

So life has been quiteee busy lately. I didn’t have the time I hoped to sit down and type out a full preview, but I did want to get this truncated primer out ahead of the main event.¹

So without further ado, let’s get into it. I’m so. freaking. pumped.

For the purposes of this post I’m assuming you are already familiar with the format and list of riders that qualified for the finals through the semi-finals (20 each on the men’s and women’s sides). If not, you can catch up at the links in this paragraph.

Wild Cards

The first big news is: (i) two riders who had qualified not making the trip to Abu Dhabi, and (ii) the use of wild cards by the UCI to advance riders directly to the finals who had not qualified through the semis. Here are those riders, with where they finished in the semis in parentheses:

Men

1. Yunfei Wu (8)

2. Adrian Alvarado (12)

3. Neal Fryett (22)

4. Daniel Turek (24)

5. Kasper Borremans (N/A)

6. Lionel Vujasin (N/A)

Women

1. Kelsey Jade Van Schoor (21)

2. Merle Brunnee (N/A)

I’ve been vocal about supporting wild cards before, though that was in the context of getting higher-profile names into the sport. And most of these make perfect sense: if Wu and Alvarado couldn’t make it for whatever reason, the UCI should replace them in the field. We also know Brunnee had to miss the semis due to her Ironman World Championship commitments - so yeah, she should be in! I’m also excited to see Borremans coming back - he’s primarily a road cyclist, but finished on the podium last year in Abu Dhabi.

I’m a little confused by some of these though. For instance, with Wu and Alvarado dropping out, it makes sense to then take the riders who finished 21st and 22nd in the semis to replace them. So Fryett I get. But Geoffrey Millour (21st) and Johan Norén (23rd) both finished ahead of Turek, so it’s not clear to me why he got the wild card over those two riders. I’m also not sure why Van Schoor advanced - maybe the UCI just wanted an even 22 riders in each field, and extending the women’s field to the rider who finished 21st was the best way to do that? As for Vujasin, he didn’t race in the semis, though I’m not sure why. Hopefully though, it was for a similarly legitimate reason as Brunnee’s - the UCI shouldn’t create a precedent where established riders can skip the semis knowing they’ll still get in through a wild card.

Regardless, I said I’m confused by these wild cards, not that I dislike them. If it turns out Millour and Norén were offered spots and declined, and with Brunnee and Borremans getting wild cards the UCI just wanted an even number so went to Vujasin and Van Schoor, then fair enough! I’m not sure I’ll ever know though - I asked the UCI, but it turns out one of the side effects of being overly critical about the qualification process is they stop responding to your emails 😂

11/11/2025 EDIT: I published this preview at almost exactly the same time Chris Schwenker hit publish on his preview on the Escape Collective. He answers some of these questions regarding the wild cards. I’ll respect the paywall and not spill the beans here, but the UCI’s reasoning for these decisions, according to Chris’ reporting, seems entirely reasonable to me.

The Women’s Race

Spoilers up front, but Kate McCarthy is the overwhelming favorite. The questions here are: (i) which other riders have a prayer of taking her down, and (ii) what their tactics should be to maximize those chances. To be clear, if anyone but McCarthy wins I’ll be completely shocked. But it’s not really fun making predictions when the odds are that lopsided. So here are the riders other riders I think have a *chance*, in order of likelihood, along with a couple of sentences on their (long shot) path to victory:

1. Gabriela Guerra: Guerra is the clear second best rider in the world right now, but I don’t think the format of the championship is conducive to her strengths. She’s *probably* the best rider on the climb, but is going to shed points in the attritional sprint stages. I think she needs to go for broke on the climb to build up a lead on McCarthy, fight to stay even (or at least ahead of her overall) on Puncher’s Playground, and then hold on in the sprint. The trouble is that this strategy requires her to waste a TON of bullets in Stage 1, which may not be the smartest move to defend her second place position. But I struggle to see a way she beats McCarthy absent that.

2. Mika Söderström: She’s been so, so strong lately, and the massive amount of points available on the sprint stage helps her out. She didn’t have the best semifinals, and McCarthy actually is the one person in the field who I think is a better sprinter, but if I squint I can see a world where Söderström holds on long enough on the climb and punch to be within spitting distance of McCarthy and then eeks it out in the sprint.

3. Francesca Tommasi, Camilla Ahlberg, and Kristen Kulchinsky: I mean, mayyyybeeeee? Don’t get me wrong, these three are all incredible riders, and Ahlberg has been looking really strong lately, but the problem is I don’t see an area where any of them are better than McCarthy. In other words, I give McCarthy the advantage over each of these riders on all three stages. With Guerra and Söderström, you can at least make the argument (and, yes, it’s a stretch) that Guerra is a better climber and Söderström a better sprinter, and therefore that they can pick up points on McCarthy in those stages and maybe hold on in the others.² I struggle to see where that happens for Tommasi, Ahlberg, or Kulchinsky, though they are strong podium contenders.

The Men’s Race

As always, it’s probably going to be Jason Osborne vs. Michael Vink. These two have been crazy close lately. I picked Osborne to win the MyWhoosh Championship, which went to Vink. So I’ll take Vink here, and just say congrats to Osborne up front for the win 😁

In all seriousness though, it’s tough to see anyone challenging these two for the win (though I think it’s more likely than someone besting McCarthy on the women’s side). But to engage in the same exercise as we did for the women’s race, here are the riders that can, in order of likelihood:

1. Borremans: He really is a wild card (bad pun intended), in that he doesn’t race on virtual roads other than in the world championship. He’s mostly found success on real roads in the GC/climbing space, and has a decent time trial, but I really have no clue how that will translate to the trainer. If I’m wrong about this race being the next chapter in the Osborne/Vink rivalry, it’ll likely be because Borremans plays spoiler.

2. Ollie Jones: The playbook for Jones here is actually pretty simple. Don’t shed points on the climb. Take points on the punch/sprint. He’s entirely capable of doing it, and his form has been great lately, taking three stage wins in the MyWhoosh Championship.

There’s a big part of me that wanted to list Hayden Pucker and Pawel Scierski here. And I certainly see them as podium contenders (plus, I’m pretty open in rooting for Americans, and Pucker is our best chance to win). The problem is they are both going to shed too many points on the climb. In the semis, it was in the range of 20-50 points to Vink and Osborne. It’s just really tough to see them making that up.³

---

So that’s that! Enjoy the racing y’all - I’ll see you on the other side.

1. And yes, I’m woefully behind on updating the site. Sorry y’all…

2. There are others in this category - namely Brunnee and Maria Holdcroft on the climbing side. But whereas Guerra is still a top rider in sprint stages, Brunnee and Holdcroft lose too much there to the point where any climbing advantage they have over McCarthy is sure to be erased.

3. Yes, I realize Scierski beat Jones on the climb in the semis. Part of this prediction though is I think Jones can bank a lot more points than that.